I found that to get the same age-adjusted death rates of the black population in 2014, the white population in 2020 would have had to have at least around 400,000 excess deaths in the COVID pandemic. And in order for white life expectancy to plummet down to the best-ever level of black life expectancy would take between 700,000 and one million excess white deaths in 2020.
Regardless of the results, what we know for sure is that the 2020 election will not signal the end of Trumpism, even if, as appears increasingly likely, Trump himself ends up losing the election. Despite his rank incompetence and callousness in the face of the pandemic and economic crisis, which eroded his support somewhat, he has retained the support of a significant minority of American voters. Thanks to a wildly undemocratic electoral system, it’s still possible that this minority will allow him to stay in power (there is no scenario at this point in which Trump wins the national popular vote). But even with a Biden win, Trump’s base isn’t going anywhere.
What determines which path labor takes will be the degree to which labor mobilization spreads and is tied to a broader political vision. That in turn will depend on the kind of patient, workplace-based organizing that rarely makes headlines.